Something to read

The Coming of the Third World War?

by Marshall Masters and John Maynard

If you have been listening to the rhetoric being bantered these days you might have the tendency to believe that "Times are good for America". Our attention has been primarily focused on our own prosperity and the elections. But, in the rush to prove that "it's the economy stupid," our leadership has virtually forsaken the mandate of our constitutional fathers to "provide for the common defense."

This is a basic question we all should be openly asking ourselves. Yet, all we heard is "that's appalling", or "some one should do something," as the rhetoric of war continues to escalate without the slightest alarm.

Can We Really Defend Ourselves?

After eight years of an inconsistently applied strategy of Pax Americana, the strength of our military forces is reminiscent of Carter's presidency, and its all time lows. Now, it appears we may be left prey to dark forces from Eastern Europe and China. What happened you ask? Basically, we as citizens simply stood by and quietly watched as our government:

Reduced our inventory of cruise missiles by scattering them all over Kosovo, Afghanistan and an odd aspirin factory here and there. But you say, "There are still some left in the Air Force groups"! Yes, that is true, but mostly in the B-52s and precious few of them.

Reduced our Navy to less than half the size it was the day President Clinton took office. Also, we've lost control of the Panama Canal thanks to President Carter and a Chinese company is now operating the locks vis-�-vis a contract arrangement with Panama.

Reduced our air combat effectiveness with political scandals. The tail hook investigations were far more intense than those conducted Independent Counsel Ken Starr and equally damaging to the country. The result is that our Navy is loosing seasoned pilots at an alarming rate. In recent aerial combat exercises conducted between our Navy and Israel, the Israelis shot down 40 American jets for every Israeli loss. Ouch! Glad we weren't at war then and the numbers were assigned losses. However, had it been real that number would make any Air Force Wing Command run for cover.

Reduced our ground combat effectiveness with social experiments and far-flung occupations. Consequently, not one single Army division is fully ready to go to war today. Not one! But, why blame Clinton, anyone could point to statistics and see that this trend started long before his tenure. Sure we can blame him, he made it possible to never regain the standards through poor leadership.

Reduced our intelligence gathering effectiveness. Since 1992, our intelligence agencies have been systematically compromised. Or, in other words, would you like fries with those nuclear secrets? Consequently, our abilities to evaluate potential threats have been diminished, and we now find ourselves learning that we've "underestimated" the advanced state of the North Korean ballistic missile program. A fact that should be of immediate concern to all Americans living on the West Coast.

These simple, undeniable facts (sans demagoguery) point to the steady decline in our military's capability. These simple facts are attended by two realities, first is that they are alarming, and second that they are still widely ignored.

When facts such as these are buried under layers of political pontificating, the real danger flourishes in virtual anonymity. And that real danger, is that the very nature of war is about to change and for the worse.

The Nature of War is About Change

Changes, yes, unthinkable changes! Russia and China have recently agreed to support each other's territorial claims with regards to Chechnya and Taiwan. Likewise, both have openly and willingly lowered the threshold for the limited (or expanded) use of tactical nuclear weapons.

To put this in perspective, let's apply this change in military doctrine to the aircraft carriers of our own Navy, the main tool of our Pax America policy.

Up until now, American Naval power has rested on the use of these carriers, and presupposes that nations would never use nuclear weapons in a tactical role. However, this should no longer be considered the case. One nuclear torpedo launched at a carrier fleet, can relegated it to obsolescence in much the same way our entire strategy of a heavy battleship defense was sent to the bottom at Pearl Harbor.

You say can't be? Then consider this; the Chinese have several Russian Kilo-class submarines armed with nuclear torpedoes. You say, "Our submarines are unarguably the best"! They may well be, but how close do you have to be to launch a disabling nuclear torpedo. All it would take is one shrewd seasoned cold war Russian skipper on loan to the Chinese, a simple launch at maximum range and the rest of the story is history.

The Chinese have boldly stated that they will resort to this kind of warfare against American forces if they deemed it necessary. A point that has been stated time-and-again, in the Chinese press and reported here. Yet, we hear few alarm bells, nor do we hear resounding calls for answers.

Is Oil the Key?

What we believe is a matter of opinion, but it is a strong debate from may conflicting fields. Even more recently it has become clear that both Russia and China would prefer that the United States be out of the way should they decide to have an open confrontation with Western Europe or for that matter, the Middle East. China does not have the same fear as Russia with regards to Taiwan because they have been gaining the upper hand in the Far East, and quickly.

Therefore, "Russia has a dilemma" According to a respected voice in the petroleum industry, Petroleum Intelligence, because the oil reserves under the Caspian Sea could very well dwarf those of Saudi Arabia.

The Caspian Sea field is huge and the crude is considered to be very "sweet" which means that it is much easier and less expensive to refine. In this perestroyka age of Mafia capitalism, the only thing that is keeping the Russian economy afloat has been oil. Thus, for Russia to become a super exporter, a pipeline is needed to move the oil into the Mediterranean. But this effort has been strangled by the present administration in two immediate ways:

a.. With its "well intentioned" invasion of Kosovo, NATO has effectively eliminated a Russian oil pipeline route through Romania and Yugoslavia. The only other route is Turkey, a strong NATO ally with only one narrow passage to the Mediterranean.

b.. Madeline Albright took extreme measures to block a huge oil development loan to Russia a few months ago. A loan that could have refurbished Russia's antiquated oil pipelines, which are leaking as much oil as they carry to market. Setting aside the moral arguments, it is important to note that our efforts to restrict Japan's access to raw resources was significant factor in their decision to begin a devastating war with their attack on Pearl Harbor.

Over the past few months we have witnessed a steady increase in price of oil at the pump. We can only hope that the OPEC ministers will make good their promise to evaluate the need for increasing production to bring the prices down. But, are the OPEC ministers secretly afraid that Russia and China will make a move on the oil reserves in the Middle East?

The low oil prices we have enjoyed for some time has been a financial disaster for Russia, and could be again. If so, the fly in the Mideast ointment for both Russian and China, is Israel. Russia and China know that Israel has sophisticated nuclear capabilities and it would be impossible to put up a sustained fight with Israel without drawing the world's pro-democracy forces into the confrontation. A conflict that would be eventually disastrous as Hitler's invasion of Russia in WWII.

A Critical Turning Point

In terms of changes, Russia's presidential elections this month will cement a chain of events that has already seen a big difference in the complexity of future politics. Putin is the favored winner, and a communist-era bear in sheep's clothing. At present, the "NEW KGB" has been faulted for several incidents of spying and this increase can only signal one thing -- something is about to change.

Given that Putin has reversed Yeltsin's long standing policy of a free press, the world's press will not be able to report this information until it is to late. Given that Putin enjoys majority support in the upcoming elections, his election will portend a new Iron Curtain drawn around a Chinese/Russo pact. A deadly duo that is already laying the groundwork for a antidemocratic Eurasian hegemony, as evidenced by the news reports we now read such as:

China Prepares for War: Confidential Red Chinese Document Showing That China Is Preparing for War With Taiwan. "At present, the foundation of a peaceful dialogue between two sides has been destroyed and the possibility for military actions has been greatly increased." General Political Department of the People's Liberation Army.

Putin Leading Russia Towards 'Modernized Stalinism' MOSCOW, Mar 1, 2000 -- (Agence France Presse) Vladimir Putin is overseeing the introduction of a dark era of "modernized Stalinism," Yelena Bonner, widow of rights activist Andrei Sakharov, said in an opinion piece published Wednesday.

China And Russia Support Each Other's Territorial Policies BEIJING, Mar 4, 2000 -- (Agence France Presse) China and Russia repeated their mutual support for each other's territorial policies Friday, agreeing on Beijing's stance on Taiwan and Moscow's position on Chechnya, the state media reported.

One must really wonder when will we all wake up and see what we have done to ourselves. Yes, ourselves, because we have no one to blame but ourselves for the way we live, treat other human beings, uphold our laws, and strive for peace. Nor, is the fronting of a one-world government the solution either.

What it will take is honest, strong-willed people to sit down together and discuss the issues without violence. Otherwise we may not survive as a species, but only destroy ourselves because we failed to be accountable to ourselves.

Marshall Masters
John Maynard
�2000 Yowusa.com

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